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Playing golf, like any game, is a game of chance. But like any game, your performance is determined by how skillfully you play, and luck. The amount of luck influencing the outcome of a game depends on the game itself. For instance, playing a lottery such as 649, is 100% luck, although some would argue that it is possible to improve your odds. BINGO is almost all luck. Card games, such as Black Jack and Poker do involve a lot of luck but are greatly influenced in one's ability to play the odds. Golf is a game which is most greatly influenced by the skill level of the player. Luck plays only a minor roll even though some days it does appear to be a major factor.

In order to improve at golf, one must improve one or more of the many facets of the game. One could work on the full swing and ball striking. One could work on the short game such as wedge play, sand play, chipping and . One could focus on improving the mental side of the game such as controlling emotions and using visualization to improve concentration. One could also just try to improve performance, not by improving any particular skill level, but optimizing the odds of play. Some call this risk management or playing the odds or playing the percentages. I call it playing Probable Golf.

Every player has his/her own strengths and weaknesses. Of course there are the good days and the bad. The goal of playing Probable Golf is to understand the odds of good play, and to know what risks will more likely reward than penalize. For instance, if a player faces a shot to a guarded by water, and the pin is tucked front-left, what are the odds of being rewarded with a favourable outcome if the player aims at the pin. What is the probability of making birdie, par, bogey, double-bogey, or worse? Understanding one's own individual, unique set of skills can assist in making the best choices on every shot.

Probable Golf involves an understanding of the cause and effect relationships in golf. By applying the principles correctly, one can improve one's average score significantly. Some of the principles involved in playing your best probable golf are:

1. Recording your shot patterns round by round so you know the percentage of times you hit the ball 5 yards short, 10 yards short, 10 yards left, etc. You can then apply the statistics to hit the best odds shot on every hole. You will realize great savings in strokes.

Shot Patterns

2. Learning how to read s correctly through plumb bobbing. Some claim that the plumb bob cannot be applied to reading s. I have applied the physics and mathematics of a sloped putt to come up with a fairly simple method of plumb bobbing effectively. It has been well established that most putts are greatly under-read, even by professionals. My plumb bobbing method confirms this and quantifies how much break each putt has, no matter its length.

Reading Putts

3. Most players find elevation changes difficult to club correctly. For most it is a guessing game; they select a club by using the experience of previous attempts, but very rarely do they hit the shot because of doubt.